Demand Response 2.0: How Indian Utilities Can Use Grid Analytics to Balance Rooftop Solar Surges

India’s rooftop solar capacity has crossed 12 GW and is expanding rapidly with government incentives and falling panel costs. This growth is a win for decarbonization, but it presents an overlooked challenge for utilities: backflow into the distribution grid.

When rooftop systems generate more than what a household or building consumes, the excess power is exported back into the local low-voltage network. Unlike centralized generation, this backflow is intermittent, highly localized, and difficult to predict. For distribution companies (DISCOMs), the effect can be destabilizing. Voltage levels spike, protection equipment faces stress, and transformers designed for one-way flow are suddenly handling reverse currents. In extreme cases, these fluctuations can trigger outages or shorten equipment life.

Why conventional demand response is not enough

Utilities have long used demand response as a tool to flatten peak demand. The classic model involves incentivizing large consumers to reduce load during high-demand periods, thereby preventing overload. But rooftop solar introduces a new problem: surges of supply during midday that the grid is not always prepared to absorb.

Conventional DR frameworks were never designed to manage oversupply. They respond to scarcity, not abundance. Yet with rooftop solar, the stress often comes from excess generation colliding with low demand. This calls for what we might term Demand Response 2.0 — an evolved mechanism that can react not just to demand peaks but also to generation surges.

The role of grid analytics in balancing surges

To make DR 2.0 viable, utilities first need visibility. It is not enough to know how much solar capacity is installed on paper. They need real-time data at the feeder and transformer level, identifying when and where backflow is occurring.

This is where Probus’ wireless LV grid sensors and analytics platform play a crucial role. By monitoring voltage, current, and load profiles across thousands of distribution assets, utilities can detect rooftop solar surges as they happen. The data is granular enough to pinpoint which feeders are experiencing stress, and predictive enough to forecast when and where such surges are likely to recur based on weather, time of day, and consumption history.

Turning insights into action: DR 2.0 mechanisms

With visibility in place, the next step is action. Demand Response 2.0 combines real-time analytics with flexible load management. For example:

• Dynamic tariff signals: Consumers with flexible loads, such as HVAC systems, water pumps, or EV chargers, can be incentivized to switch on during rooftop solar peaks, absorbing excess generation locally.

• Automated load shifting: Smart appliances and industrial equipment can respond directly to signals from the utility, increasing consumption when surges are detected.

• Battery coordination: Distributed storage assets can be charged preferentially during backflow events, reducing strain on the grid while enhancing the economics of solar-plus-storage.

Instead of curtailing rooftop solar or risking equipment damage, utilities use DR 2.0 to align local demand with local generation.

Preventing blackouts and enabling higher solar penetration

The payoff is significant. With DR 2.0, utilities can:

• Stabilize voltage at the distribution level, preventing trips and outages.

• Extend the life of transformers and other assets by reducing stress from backflow.

• Accommodate higher levels of rooftop solar without requiring expensive grid reinforcements.

In effect, DR 2.0 allows rooftop solar to scale without destabilizing the grid. This is crucial in India, where ambitious renewable targets hinge on distributed generation as well as utility-scale projects.

The path forward for Indian utilities

Rooftop solar has shifted the grid from a one-way street to a two-way marketplace. Utilities that continue treating demand response as a blunt instrument for demand reduction will fall behind. Those that embrace analytics-driven, bidirectional demand response will unlock new resilience and value.

Probus is enabling this shift by marrying IoT visibility with advanced grid analytics. With real-time data from the LV network, utilities can anticipate rooftop surges, trigger automated responses, and prevent instability before it occurs.

The energy transition is not just about adding more renewable capacity. It is about ensuring that the grid evolves fast enough to integrate that capacity. Demand Response 2.0 is one of the most practical and immediate tools to make that evolution possible.